Best Laid Plans…

UPDATE, 14/11/2025:

As Co-Founder of Communify, I wrote newsletters on behalf of the team. My opinion has changed significantly (particularly in relation to AI) since writing many of them, but I do not regret my attempts to see AI as a means of supporting human creativity, even if I now believe it is just as likely to stifle or actively hinder it. Many major publisher beg to differ, however. Or maybe they just don’t think it’s important.

Place your bets, ladies and gentleman.

"The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

Although typically traced back to the 1937 novel Of Mice and Men, written by John Steinbeck, the "mice" in this phrase actually comes from the 18th century poem To a Mouse by Robert Burns. In the poem, Burns reflects on how a farmer’s plow has destroyed a mouse’s nest, despite the mouse’s best efforts to prepare for the winter.

It's a timeless image of how nature can throw unexpected challenges (or death) at anyone, but its not a lesson in the futility of planning. Even the most thoughtful strategies must contend with unexpected challenges, and success doesn’t come from avoiding uncertainty, but from forging ahead despite it. The ones who thrive are those who set out with purpose, while preparing to adapt along the way.

Event Horizon

Over the course of an era marked by relative stability and predictable economic cycles, the five-year plan was adopted universally, and provided a dependable framework for governments, businesses, and industries to map out their futures. It was long enough to achieve meaningful progress, yet short enough to adjust to minor shifts.

Today's world is different. The rapid pace of technological change, global interconnectedness, and unforeseen crises have made rigid, long-term strategies increasingly vulnerable. The very conditions that once made a five-year plan effective—steady progress and predictable change, are now replaced by volatility and uncertainty. This shift compels us to reconsider our approach and embrace adaptability over fixed timelines.

Long-term strategies can easily become self-imposed constraints, often leaving companies exposed to sudden shifts in technology, consumer behaviour, and competitive landscapes. Instead of planning for a distant future, modern leaders are embracing a dynamic approach—one that values real-time feedback, continuous experimentation, and rapid iteration. The organisations that win now are not those that cling to fixed roadmaps, but those that can pivot quickly, learn continuously, and build adaptability into their very DNA.

A Blockbuster Lesson

In the early 2000s, Blockbuster reigned supreme. Led by visionary executives like John Antioco, Blockbuster expanded aggressively, banking on a business model built around physical rentals and a five-year expansion plan. Their strategy was based on the assumption that consumer behaviour would continue in a predictable fashion, with customers visiting thousands of brick-and-mortar stores for new releases (or that any change to that behaviour would take >5 years to materialise).

There were warning signs, but Blockbuster’s leadership was slow to recognise emerging trends. While some internal voices and market analysts began to note the growing influence of digital technologies and consumer demand for more convenience, these perspectives were often dismissed as anomalies or overreactions. Additionally, while Blockbuster did experiment with online rentals and digital platforms on a limited basis, these efforts were hampered by a company culture steeped in legacy practices and an over-reliance on the existing revenue model.

In contrast, Netflix was born from a different philosophy. Originally a DVD-by-mail service, Netflix’s founders Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph were quick to sense the tectonic shift in how consumers wanted to engage with media. By continually experimenting—first with mail-based services and then with streaming—they embraced a model of rapid iteration. When Netflix pivoted to streaming, it did so not only by capitalising on new technology but also by harnessing real-time customer data and feedback. Their approach was built on an agile mindset that allowed them to quickly shed outdated assumptions and retool their business model for a digital future.

It’s important to note that Blockbuster wasn’t entirely negligent; there were missed opportunities and complex market dynamics at play. Some critics argue that Blockbuster’s downfall was not solely due to strategic rigidity but also to the challenges of transitioning an entire ecosystem—from inventory management to customer engagement—in an era of digital transformation. Moreover, Blockbuster did attempt to diversify its offerings later on, including experimenting with on-demand streaming and kiosk rentals. However, these measures were too little, too late, and they were unable to overcome the momentum of digital disruption.

In today’s volatile environment, the ability to adapt and learn continuously is far more valuable than a fixed, long-term strategy. Even when traditional models seem bulletproof, blind spots and inertia can be fatal.

Adaptation

Plan in shorter cycles. Shift from a five-year outlook to shorter planning cycles such as 6 to 12 months, or even 90-day sprints. This allows for frequent reassessment and course correction.

Encourage continuous experimentation. Build a culture that prioritises rapid testing and iteration. Launch pilot projects, measure results, and scale what works while discarding what doesn’t.

Leverage real-time data. Use live analytics and feedback loops to inform decision-making. Rather than relying solely on long-term forecasts, let current market signals guide your next steps.

Empower decentralised decision-making. Equip teams with the authority to make decisions quickly. When the environment changes, frontline teams need the freedom to pivot without waiting for top-down directives.

Build flexibility into your strategy. Design systems and processes that are resilient to change. Embrace uncertainty as an opportunity to innovate rather than a threat to stability.

The future belongs to those who can adapt - or maybe it always has. Today’s rapidly changing environment requires leaders to break free from the constraints of rigid, long-term planning and embrace a mindset of continuous improvement and agile response instead. Whether you’re a multinational corporation, a man, or a mouse, the key is to build systems that are as dynamic as the market itself.